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Marine Weather Review - North Atlantic Area
January to April 2004

By George P. Bancroft, National Center for Environmental Prediction

Introduction

An active winter pattern dominated much of the period into early March, during which all of the hurricane-force storms occurred. Many of the lows during this period tracked northeast off the mid-Atlantic and northeast coast of the U.S. or the Canadian Maritimes and passed near or over the island of Newfoundland before passing between the British Isles and Greenland. A few turned back to the northwest toward Labrador under the influence of blocking to the north. The most significant events were hurricane-force storms developing off the coast in the western North Atlantic, including those in the middle of the months of January and February, and also in early March. Relatively little cyclonic activity extended across the British Isles into the North Sea or east into mainland Europe, due to persistent high pressure. There were no tropical cyclones during the four-month period.

Significant Events of the Period

North Atlantic Storms, January 1–12: A slow-moving area of low pressure deepened over the southern Labrador Sea on January 1 while initially drifting north. The central pressure dropped to 968 hPa at 0600 UTC January 2, when Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) briefly analyzed the system as a hurricane-force low near 55N 51W, with the strongest winds near the south Labrador coast. The low then drifted northeast away from the coast, weakening to a gale near Cape Farewell early on the 3rd, and then passing northwest of Iceland on the 5th. A second low passed east and then northeast off the south Labrador coast late on January 4 and gradually intensified into a 955 hPa storm near 60N 32W at 0600 UTC January 8, where it stalled. There were two ship reports with 60 kt winds, one a west wind from Atlantic Cartier (SCKB) (53N 34W) at 0600 UTC on the 8th , and the other a north wind from the Sarpik Ittuk (OWME) near 59N 42W at 1200 UTC on the 9th. The system subsequently drifted east and weakened to a gale south of Iceland on January 11. A third storm formed from the merger of two lows over the central North Atlantic on January 11, to develop a 973 hPa central pressure near 53N 17W at 1800 UTC on the 12th. OPC briefly analyzed a compact hurricane-force low at 1200 and 1800 UTC January 12. The system then weakened to a gale before passing over the British Isles on the 13th.

Figure 1. OPC North Atlantic Surface Charts - Click to 
Enlarge

Figure 1. OPC North Atlantic Surface charts (Part 2-west) valid 1200 UTC January 15 and 16, 2004. The development of a hurricane-force storm (the most intense of the four-month period) is depicted.

Western North Atlantic Storm, January 15–21: This low explosively deepened while moving off the mid-Atlantic coast of the U.S. early on January 15, becoming a storm 350 nmi north of Bermuda at 1800 UTC January 15. The center reached the south coast of the island of Newfoundland at 1200 UTC on the 16th, with the central pressure bottoming out at 948 hPa (27.99 in). Figure 1 shows the development of this hurricane-force low over a twenty-four hour period. The central pressure dropped 49 hPa in 24 hours, or about 2 hPa per hour. This storm was the most intense in terms of central pressure, and was the most rapid deepener, of the four-month period in not only the North Atlantic, but also the North Pacific as well. Some of the more notable ship and buoy reports are listed in Table 1.



OBSERVATION POSITION DATE/TIME (UTC) WIND SEAS (m/ft)
Hannover Express
     (DEHZ)
45 N 56 W 16/0600 NE 60  
VEP717
     (oil platform)
46.7 N 48.7 W 16/1200 SE 65  
Lykes Motivator
     (WABU)
38 N 55 W 16/1800 W 60  
Norasia Tegesos
     (P3JA9)
40.5 N 69.4 W 17/0000 SW 60  
Buoy 44008 40.5 N 69.4 W 16/1000 NW 39
Peak gust 54
5.5/18
Buoy 44004 38.5 N 70.5 W 16/0500
16/0900
NW 41 G52 6.0/20
7.5/25

Table 1. Some observations taken during the storm of January 15-21, 2004.

Figure 2. Satellite Image - Click to Enlarge

Figure 2. Mosaic image consisting of GOES12 and METEOSAT7 infrared satellite imagery valid 1800 UTC January 16, 2004, showing the storm in Figure 1 near maximum intensity. The satellite senses temperature on a scale from warm (black) to cold (white) in this type of imagery

Frigid arctic air followed in the wake of the storm, with Buoy 44005 (42.9N 68.9W) reporting a temperature of minus 18C early on the 16th. Even well offshore, Buoy 44011 (41.1N 66.6W) reported a temperature of minus 10C at that time. Figure 2 is an infrared satellite image taken as the storm was near maximum intensity, centered over the island of Newfoundland. Note the broad, well-developed frontal cloud bands with cold tops to the north and east of the center, and the cumulus-type clouds in the cold unstable air flowing off the coast south of the center. The system subsequently weakened and drifted east of Newfoundland on the 18th, with a secondary hurricane-force storm center forming on the front near 55N 47W (970 hPa) at 1800 UTC January 17. The hurricane-force winds were north of the front, analogous to the situation in the late-January storm described below. This secondary center and the original low to the south then became a complex storm system in the central Atlantic on the 19th, and then moved north and weakened near Greenland by the 21st.

North Atlantic Storm of January 25–29: This storm followed a track similar to that of the previous system, but was not nearly as intense. After moving off the mid-Atlantic coast early on January 24, the low became a storm and stalled near Cape Race by 0000 UTC on the 26th, before drifting northwest on the 26th and forming a new center in the Labrador Sea late on January 28. Figure 3 shows this secondary storm with a frontal system approaching Greenland at 1800 UTC.

Figure 3. OPC North Atlantic Surface Analysis Chart - 
Click to Enlarge

Figure 3. OPC North Atlantic Surface Analysis chart (Part 2) valid 1800 UTC January 29, 2004.

Figure 4. QuikSCAT Scatterometer Image - Click to Enlarge

Figure 4. QuikSCAT scatterometer image of satellite-sensed winds valid at 2234 UTC January 29, 2004. The valid time of the pass is about four and one-half hours after the valid time of Figure 3. Image is courtesy of NOAA/NESDIS/Office of Research and Applications.

January 29. A QuikSCAT image with scatterometer winds (Figure 4) taken several hours later shows a wind maximum of up to 70 kt where winds are channeled between the front and the southern tip of Greenland (top of figure). Another storm circulation is seen to the south, passing well east of Newfoundland. The two centers then moved inland over Labrador and weakened by the 30th.

Figure 5. OPC Analysis Chart - Click to Enlarge

Figure 5. OPC Analysis chart (Part 2) valid at 1800 UTC February 19, 2004, superimposed on a GOES-East infrared satellite image valid at the same time. Satellite senses temperature on a gray scale ranging from black (warm) to white (cold) in this type of imagery

Western North Atlantic Storm of February 18–20: This storm was perhaps the most noteworthy event of the period in terms of winds and seas generated. Figure 5 shows the system fully developed at 1800 UTC February 19, with the central pressure bottoming out at 960 hPa. Earlier, the low was already a storm six hours after moving off the North Carolina coast at 0600 UTC on the 18th. The central pressure dropped 38 hPa in the twenty-four hour period ending at 1200 UTC on the 19th. The superimposed satellite image in Figure 5 reveals a large comma cloud with broad, cold-topped frontal bands north and east of the center. Some notable surface observations taken near the height of the storm are listed in Table 2. The storm subsequently weakened to a gale as it passed over Newfoundland early on the 21st, before dissipating near Greenland on the 23rd.








OBSERVATION POSITION DATE/TIME (UTC) WIND SEAS (m/ft)
Federal Progress
     (VRLX6)
36 N 68 W 19/0600 NW 65  
Zim Iberia
     (4XFP)
42 N 46 W 19/1200 N 75 8.0/26
Rowan Gorilla V
     (WCY5331)
44 N 60 W 19/1200 E 65  
Alouette Arrow
     (LALK4)
44.5 N 62 W 19/1200 E 60 13.5/45
SeaLand Pride
(WDA3673))
40 N 63 W 19/1800 W 80 18.0/59
Alouette Arrow 43.5 N 63 W 19/1800 N 60  
Isomeria
     (GCGJ)
39.5 N 59 W 19/1800 SW 63 6.5/21
SeaLand Pride
     (WDA3673)
40 N 61 W 20/0000 W 50 16.0/53
Isomeria
     (GCGJ)
39 N 59 W 20/0000 SW 70 7.0/23
Alouette Arrow
     (LALK4)
43 N 60 W 20/0600 W 55 15.0/5.0
SeaLand Pride 38 N 61 W 20/1200 W 45 13.5/44
Lykes Motivator
     (WABU)
36 N 57 W 20/1700 W 45 13.0/42
Buoy 44011 41.1 N 66.6 W 19/1200
19/1500
NW 43
Peak gust 62
NW 39
Peak gust 56
8.5/28

10.0/33

Buoy 44008 40.5 N 69.4 W 19/0200 N 35 G47 6.0/20
Buoy 44004 38.5 N 70.5 W 19/0100 N 45 G56 7.0/23

Table 2. Some ship and buoy observations taken during the storm of February 18-20, 2004.

Figure 6. OPC North Atlantic Surface Analysis 
Chart - Click to Enlarge

Figure 6. OPC North Atlantic Surface Analysis charts (Part 1) valid 0600 UTC March 1 and 2, 2004.

North Atlantic Storm of March 1–3: This storm originated southeast of Newfoundland near 40N 43W at 0000 UTC March 1 and moved northeast while deepening rapidly, with the central pressure falling 33 hPa to 965 hPa in twenty-four hours. Figure 6 displays the development of this storm over a twenty-four hour period, with the central pressure bottoming out at 956 hPa at 0600 UTC March 2. The satellite image in Figure 7 valid at that time shows a mature occluded system with a well-defined center and cloud spiral. The storm moved into an area with few ship reports, with the QuikSCAT image in Figure 8 revealing several 60-kt wind barbs southeast of the center and a band of stronger winds farther east and southeast associated with the frontal zone. The storm center subsequently began to weaken while tracking north, and passed northwest of Iceland on March 3.






Figure 7. METEOSAT7 Infrared Satellite Image - Click to Enlarge

Figure 7. METEOSAT7 infrared satellite image valid 0600 UTC March 2, 2004. The valid time is the same as that of the second part of Figure 6.

Figure 8. QuikSCAT Scatterometer Image- Click to 
Enlarge

Figure 8. QuikSCAT scatterometer image of satellite-sensed winds valid at 0608 UTC March 2, 2004. The valid time is approximately that of the second part of Figure 6. Image is courtesy of NOAA/NESDIS/Office of Research and Applications.

North Atlantic Storm of March 7–9, 2004: This developing storm tracked east across the Canadian Maritimes on March 6 and 7, passing over the island of Newfoundland early on the 7th and then reaching a maximum intensity of 964 hPa over the Grand Banks at 0600 UTC March 8. The Grand Banks oil platforms reported west to northwest winds of 50 to 55 kt after passage of the storm center, except that there was a 65 kt west wind report at Hibernia Platform (HP6038, 46.4N 48.4W) at 1200 UTC March 8. Six hours later the ship UBC Saiki (P3GY9) encountered a west wind of 55 kt near 42N 40W. The system then weakened and elongated north-south over the central waters, blocked by high pressure over the eastern North Atlantic.

North Atlantic Storm of March 8–12: The next developing storm in the series, and the one following it, were not as intense as the one described above, but produced stronger winds as they tracked farther south over the warmer waters off the mid-Atlantic coast of the U.S. The next low originated as a coastal redevelopment of an interior system, forming near the North Carolina coast by 0600 UTC March 8 and tracking east-northeast, with the central pressure dropping 17 hPa in the following twelve hours. Buoy 41001 (34.7N 72.2W) reported sustained northwest winds of 35 kt and 7.5 m seas (25 ft) six hours later. At 0600 UTC March 9 the center was at 976 hPa near 41N 58W, with a high-resolution QuikSCAT pass at that time revealing winds to 70 kt south of the center (not shown). The strongest conventional wind report was from the ship Genua Express (PBKY) which reported southwest winds of 60 kt near 37N 63W at 1800 UTC March 8. The vessel TCAO reported seas of 11.5 m (37 ft) along with a west wind of 45 kt near 35N 67W at 0000 UTC March 9. The first part of Figure 9 shows this storm passing east of the Grand Banks near the edge of the chart. The storm then weakened to a gale over the central North Atlantic on the 9th, before turning north and looping southwest of Iceland as a storm on the 11th and 12th. The system then weakened to a gale and passed north of Great Britain early on March 15.

Figure 9. OPC North Atlantic Surface Analysis Charts - Click to Enlarge

Figure 9. OPC North Atlantic Surface Analysis charts (Part 2) valid 0600 UTC March 10 and 11, 2004.

Figure 10. QuikSCAT Scatterometer Image - Click to Enlarge

Figure 10. QuikSCAT scatterometer image of satellite-sensed winds valid at 2318 UTC March 10, 2004. The valid time is approximately seven hours prior to that of the second surface analysis in Figure 9.Image is courtesy of NOAA/NESDIS/Office of Research and Applications.

Western North Atlantic Storm of March 10–11: This storm developed early soon after moving off the southeast U.S. coast and was relatively short-lived as a storm, but was compact and potent. Figure 9 depicts the rapid spinup of this storm over a twenty-four hour period ending at 0600 UTC March 11, with the central pressure dropping 24 hPa in the twenty-four hour period ending at 0600 UTC March 11. Some notable ship and buoy data obtained during the storm are listed in Table 3. Although none of the available reports have sustained winds above 60 kt, the QuikSCAT image in Figure 10 reveals winds of up to 70 kt from the east or northeast north of the storm center. Although the central pressure was lowest when the center passed east of the island of Newfoundland late on the 13th (982 hPa at 0000 UTC March 14), the circulation had broadened and was over cold water by then and winds were down to gale force. Encountering the blocking high pressure over the eastern North Atlantic, the system elongated and passed east of Iceland on March 17.

OBSERVATION POSITION DATE/TIME (UTC) WIND SEAS (m/ft)
M/V Freedom
     (WDB5483)
37 N 72 W 11/0600 N 55  
Maersk Missouri
     (WAHV)
36 N 72 W 11/1200 NW 60  
Maersk Missouri
     (WAHV)
36 N 69 W 11/1800 NW 55      
Chesapeake Light
     (CHLV2 C-MAN)
36.9 N 75.6 W 10/2000
10/2300
N 46 G52 4.0/13
5.0/16
Buoy 44014 36.6 N 74.8 W 11/0000
11/0200
N 41 G49
Peak gust 52
6.5/21
7.0/23
Buoy 41002 32.3 N 75.2 W 11/0100
11/0600
NW 35 G45 5.5/18
6.5/21
Buoy 44004 38.5 N 70.5 W 11/0200
11/0000
NE 45 G54
Peak gust 60
9.5/31
Buoy 44011 41.1 N 66.6 W 11/0900
11/1600
NE 37 G51 5.5/18
8.5/28
Buoy 44008 40.5 N 69.4 W 11/1200 N 39 G56 8.5/28
Buoy 41001 34.7 N 72.2 W 11/1000 NW 39 G49 8.5/28

Table 3. Ship, buoy and C-MAN station observations from the storm of March 10–11.

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